TL;DR: Headlines say Bourbon and alcohol sales are collapsing. But when you zoom out, the data tells a different story. In this post, I show why two-point comparisons mislead executives, and how leaders–from distilleries to hospitals–can use better metrics thinking to avoid overreacting and make smarter long-term decisions.
This Isn't About Bourbon–It's About How Leaders Read Charts
Headlines say Bourbon and alcohol sales are collapsing. Zooming out tells a different story–a classic example of misleading short-term metrics.
If you're an executive or CI facilitator, this isn't just about Bourbon. It's a cautionary tale. Every day, organizations misread charts, chase noise, and waste effort–all because they're only looking at this year vs. last, or this month vs. target. The same flawed logic drives bad decisions in sales, healthcare, manufacturing, and beyond.
Thanks to my friend, David Meier, a former Toyota guy and current Bourbon distiller, for sharing an amazing chart.
The chart, created by the New York Times, shows U.S. alcohol sales by month over recent years.
The most recent trend looks good, contrary to what headlines have said.
What your brain wants to do here:
Look at the most recent data and feel relieved. “See? Things are improving.”
What a leader should do instead:
Pause and ask: Improving compared to what–and over what time frame?
Why Short-Term Metrics Feel So Convincing
A short-term uptick can feel reassuring, just as a short-term dip can feel alarming. But neither tells us whether the system has actually changed. This is exactly why reacting to short-term charts–without historical context–leads leaders to overcorrect in both directions.
As “Disco Stu” said in an episode of The Simpsons, regarding disco music records,
“Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976, if these trends continue…AY!”
How Charts Create Crisis Narratives
Now let's zoom out a bit, and we see what looks like a dramatic downturn, as many headlines have declared. Yes, I'm intentionally hiding the X-axis for now.
This chart looks dramatic. And that's the point.
When we hide the time scale–or compress it–we invite a crisis narrative. Leaders see charts like this every day in board decks and performance reviews. The visual slope feels urgent, even when the underlying system hasn't fundamentally changed.
This is how organizations end up launching task forces, mandating countermeasures, or pressuring teams to “explain the drop”–when what they're really seeing is routine variation.
Yeah, this looks bad. Look at that decline! This chart supports headlines like:
- How Kentucky bourbon went from boom to bust
- Bourbon, spirits industry suffers ‘significant downturn' after record year for exports
- Kentucky bourbon brands see ‘concerning' decline in sales
- Bourbon faces historic slowdown
And it's not just Bourbon, it's wine and alcohol in general.
- Constellation wine and spirits sales slashed by half
- Wine Sales Are in Decline–Here's How Western Wineries Are Reaching Younger Generations
- Under the Hood: Data Show U.S. Wine Industry Decline Is Accelerating
- Americans are cutting back on alcohol. How brewers are responding
Notice how confidently these headlines are written. None of them say, “Based on a limited time window…” or “Compared to an unusually high baseline…”
Inside organizations, we often speak with the same false certainty–just with internal jargon instead of newspaper headlines.
Why Two-Point Comparisons Create Misleading Metrics
One of the most common and tempting traps in data analysis is the two-point comparison:
- “Sales are down from last year.”
- “We're up compared to last quarter.”
- “We missed the target this month.”
The danger isn't just analytical–it's behavioral.
Two-point comparisons drive reactive leadership:
- Leaders demand explanations for normal fluctuation
- Teams feel blamed for outcomes they didn't cause
- Improvement work becomes performative instead of meaningful
This is what I call “headline metrics” in Measures of Success. It's surface-level thinking–and it's risky. Because while these statements may be technically true, they rarely tell the full story.
We start reacting to noise instead of responding to meaningful signals. And that leads to confusion, wasted effort, and misaligned strategies.
Yes, there's clearly a decline. It's blamed on trade wars, tariffs, and general trends of Americans drinking less, especially younger people.
But, as the statistician (and author of the foreword to my book Measures of Success) Donald J. Wheeler, Ph.D. says,
“Without context, data have no meaning.”
We need enough context and perspective to make sure we're seeing and understanding the full picture. Doing so allows us to make better decisions.
The Danger of Abnormal Baselines
When we pull back to include early 2020, the story changes again. The “decline” now looks less like a failure and more like a predictable response to an extraordinary spike.
In other words, today's numbers are being judged against an abnormal baseline–which is one of the fastest ways to mislead yourself with data.
When ‘Bad News' Is Just a Return to Normal
Now let's really pull back to 2016 and I'll show the entire chart. This is the chart leaders need to sit with.
When we zoom out far enough, sales don't look “bad” at all. They look… typical. The data have returned to the long-term trend almost perfectly.
That's not a bust. That's regression to the mean.
Sales don't appear to be historically low, at least over the time frame we can see. Sales have regressed to the long-term linear trend, almost perfectly.
Yes, it's a “new low” if you're measuring the percentage of Americans who drink. But if you're a producer, like Dave, I think you'd care more about total sales, or sales within your segment.
Seeing the System Instead of the Snapshot
Here's a historical chart for retail alcohol sales that goes back to 1992, from macrotrends.net:
This long-range view makes two things obvious:
- The long-term growth trend is steady
- The spikes and dips are predictable
Holidays, seasonality, and cultural patterns show up clearly when we give the data enough room to speak.
When leaders mistake predictable patterns for problems, they waste energy–and lose credibility with their teams.
What the Alcohol Sales Data Actually Show
If you look at a one-year slice of the data, alcohol sales–Bourbon included–appear to be in sharp decline. It's not hard to see why people are worried. But let's zoom out a bit.
If we expand the timeline to start in early 2020, we see a spike–a pandemic-related surge in alcohol sales. The recent decline starts to look more like a return to normal levels.
Now zoom out even further–to 2016–and a different story emerges. The recent numbers aren't historically low. In fact, sales have simply regressed to the long-term linear trend line. Almost perfectly.
That's not a bust. It's a normalization.
What Better Charts Enable Leaders to Do
Continuous Improvement leaders are often tasked with driving results–but if the metrics guiding your efforts are flawed, your improvement work becomes reactive or aimless. If you're chasing monthly red dots on a bowling chart, you're playing whack-a-mole.
Instead, use statistical thinking and visualizations like Process Behavior Charts to distinguish signal from noise. You'll free your team from firefighting and help leadership see the bigger picture. Note: You can create PBCs that show control limits around a linear trend, instead of a flat average.
See my book Measures of Success for how to get started with PBCs–or contact me if you'd like coaching or a workshop for your team.
A Practical Takeaway for CI Leaders and Executives
If you take one thing from this post, let it be this:
Don't manage from snapshots.
Whether you're looking at sales, quality, safety, or engagement, insist on seeing data over time. Use tools–like Process Behavior Charts–that help separate signal from noise. And resist the urge to demand explanations when the system hasn't actually changed.
That discipline protects your improvement work. It protects your people. And it leads to better long-term results.
That's not about being less accountable. It's about being more effective.
If you’re working to build a culture where people feel safe to speak up, solve problems, and improve every day, I’d be glad to help. Let’s talk about how to strengthen Psychological Safety and Continuous Improvement in your organization.
