Search Results for two data points not a trend

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Ratings for “The Oscars” Were Lower in 2018? Should We Ask Why or Look for Longer-Term Trends?

Downward trending line graphic over gold trophy figures representing decline in success or performance.

As I blogged about yesterday, things went well at the Oscars... or, at least, no errors were made in the announcements. But that thing that didn't go well was the TV ratings.

Two Data Points Are Not a Trend
The headlines I saw had a lot of two-data-point comparisons. Headlines sometimes gave the percentage decrease in viewers or how many million fewer viewers there were. Many talked about "record low" but if you're tracking a metric "record low" or "all-time high" doesn't mean there's a "special cause." That "record low" could still be noise in the system.

Mark Graban
March 8, 2018
3 Comments

Blog

The Academy Awards Add an Inspector, Practice “Andon Cord Pulls,” Avoid Another Mixup

Tomorrow, my post will be about headlines that scream about ratings for The Oscars being "down from last year" or "the lowest in X years." As I've blogged about before, I'm always skeptical of such simplistic comparisons that might mask the real underlying trend.

But first, could the Academy avoid last year's embarrassing mixup?

Mark Graban
March 7, 2018

Blog

Two Data Points Don’t Make a Trend: Why Headlines Mislead Us

Gun pointed downward, hidden behind a tape measure, with a large grey downward arrow overlay.

When looking at data, whether it's the number of homicides in San Antonio or some of our workplace metrics, it's tempting to overreact to a "headline" that says a measure went down in 2017 compared to 2016. But do two data points really help us understand what the real trend is? This blog post explores an approach we can use to make better decisions about our data.

Mark Graban
January 8, 2018
13 Comments

Blog

2-Data-Point Comparisons vs. Charts – NBA Big Man 3-Point Shots and Lean Blog Traffic

So many of our business metrics are reported in terms of two-data point comparisons. How much did the metric change from last week? Web site traffic is up 14% from last month. So that’s good? Maybe. Two data points…

Mark Graban
October 31, 2017
2 Comments

Blog

If You React to Every Blip in the Metrics, Then Nothing is a Priority?

Here’s another post on the theme of performance metrics, as I’m talking about next week at Lean Startup Week (see yesterday’s post or others in this series). At the risk of becoming a broken record, it saddens me to see…

Mark Graban
October 26, 2017
8 Comments

Blog

Reader Question: More Clarity in Visualizing Hospital Performance Data

I received another reader question (submit yours here) and it’s about statistics, “daily Lean management,” and visualizing performance data. Hey Mark: I like your posts about control charts and data. Our health system is rolling out a “Daily Lean Management” system…

Mark Graban
May 30, 2017
6 Comments

Blog

Data Without Context Have No Meaning: Emergency Department Wait Time Billboards

Patients waiting too long for the E.D. is a problem around the world. Many U.S. hospitals put up billboards that claim to shed light on how long you'll have to wait. But are the signs and numbers more confusing than helpful? Does it matter?

Mark Graban
February 6, 2017
6 Comments

Blog, Interviews

Jamie Flinchbaugh on Lean Zealots, What’s Working, and What’s Not

Joining me for Episode #261 is an old friend and trusted mentor, Jamie Flinchbaugh. Among other things, he’s the co-author of the book The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Lean. He writes for a number of publications, has his own blog, and was previously…

Mark Graban
August 30, 2016
2 Comments

Blog

Ask This Question (Not This One) When Trying to Improve a Stable System

As I’ve done before (and written about), I’ll be facilitating the famed “Deming Red Bead Experiment” on Thursday at the Society for Health Systems annual conference. See this pages with notes and slides. The intent of the exercise is to…

Mark Graban
February 16, 2016
3 Comments

Blog

Lean is Not About Cutting Costs; 2 Data Point Comparisons in EDs & the NFL

Two pet peeves of mine are hearing people say things like “Lean is all about reducing waste” and or “Lean is all about cost cutting” (and thankfully others are also trying to dispel that myth). Another pet peeve is people…

Mark Graban
September 17, 2014
3 Comments

Blog

Can Data Really Prove a “Sick Out”? What Process Behavior Charts Can–and Can’t–Tell Us

1. Man holding thermometer, appearing sick and tired in a healthcare setting.

TL;DR: Headlines and two-point comparisons can’t prove a “sick out.” This post shows how Process Behavior Charts (PBCs) help distinguish real signals from normal variation–and why data alone can’t confirm intent or blame. As a frequent flyer on American Airlines…

Mark Graban
September 24, 2012
18 Comments

Blog

Data Without Context Isn’t Very Helpful; Don’t Overreact to Each Up & Down

Some of the best lessons I have ever learned for my career are from Donald Wheeler’s brilliant book Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos. One idea is that data without context is meaningless. The other is the application of…

Mark Graban
November 2, 2011
9 Comments

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