I’ve been doing some radio interviews recently (as I blogged about here and here). The firm that helps line these up is very good at connecting topics I’d like to talk about, the “My Favorite Mistake” podcast and data-related topics…
tl;dr: The “two consecutive reds” rule persists because reacting feels like leadership — but it generates wasted investigations, false success stories, and eroded trust. Process Behavior Charts tell you when variation actually means something changed. I’m writing about something that…
tl;dr: Headlines comparing two years of measles cases can be misleading. Looking at the full CDC time series with Process Behavior Charts shows that not every increase is meaningful. From 2000-2013, U.S. measles cases fluctuated as noise within a stable…
TL;DR: Two data points don’t make a trend — whether it’s gas prices, Oscars ratings, or your team’s monthly KPIs. Snapshot comparisons (“up from last week, down from last year”) give the illusion of insight without the reality of understanding.…
Scroll down for how to subscribe, transcript, and more My guest for Episode #525 of the Lean Blog Interviews Podcast is Christopher R. Chapman. He’s an experienced agile coach and consultant with a background in software development and agile transformation.…
tl;dr: Run charts and bar charts can hint at patterns, but they often mislead. A Process Behavior Chart reveals whether a KPI truly changed–or if it’s just fluctuating as systems do. When leaders see variation clearly, they can react less,…
Two data points aren’t a trend–but headlines, executives, and analysts keep treating them like one, whether the topic is Olympic TV viewership or business performance. Two data points are not a trend. Let’s start with an example from a recent…
Two-Year Comparisons in Major League Baseball Stats: A Strikeout, not a Homer tl;dr summary: Year-to-year MLB stat comparisons are misleading. Using long-term data and Process Behavior Charts shows that most 2024 trends–runs, hits, doubles, and home runs–are normal variation, while…
On NPR recently, the hourly news update covered economic indicators: Gas prices are UP 5 cents from a week ago Gas prices are DOWN 10 cents from a month ago So gas prices are both going up and down —…
tl;dr summary: This post examines the trend of Tommy John surgeries in MLB and MiLB using Process Behavior Charts, revealing that the perceived surge in injuries is within historical variation. The data suggests shifts in patterns rather than a sudden…
The Oscars may report a “four-year high” (or now, in 2026, a “four-year low”), but the long-term data tells a very different story. Year-to-year viewership and ratings changes are mostly noise. Using Process Behavior Charts reveals the real trend: decades…
tl;dr: Bowling charts encourage red-green reactions that hide real trends. Process Behavior Charts help leaders distinguish signal from noise and manage systems more effectively. Here is a LinkedIn Live event I did on Thursday at 11 am ET, with my…
