How to Tell the Difference Between ‘Signal’ and ‘Noise’ in Voter Turnout Numbers or Your Organization’s Metrics My article on LinkedIn
Here is a new article that I posted on LinkedIn… don't worry, it's not political, but it does look at recent voter turnout rates through a statistical lens. And I think it's a lens that's helpful for looking at metrics in our own organizations:
The article starts:
After the recent midterm elections, Americans have seen headlines that describe how voter turnout “soared” to over 49% and that the number of voters was a “50-year high.” That sounds impressive, but how can we put those numbers into the proper context? Articles published after the 2014 election said that year's 36.7% rate was ” lowest in 70 years” and added that it was lower than 2010 (41%).
The problem with looking at just a data point or two is that we're missing a lot of context . How much does the voter turnout number normally fluctuate from election to election? A “run chart,” as shown below, is visual and helps us better understand how the voting rate looks over time (data is from the United States Election Project).