Greg Jacobson, MD is a practicing emergency room physician. He's a friend and trusted colleague and he's not prone to overreaction and exaggeration.
We just got off the phone and his message for public health (which also includes YOUR health) is clear and emphatic:
Greg and medical experts say that a broad societal “lock down” of 12 days duration will stop the spread of the virus. Italy has already taken that action and Greg thinks (or hopes) that we are a few days away from that step in the U.S. — and the sooner the better, he says.
China had a severe shut down of the Wuhan area and they are now closing down the temporary emergency hospitals that were built. There can be light at the end of the tunnel, but only if we take action to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
Greg emphasizes that being younger does NOT mean you are without risk. There are people in their 20s to 40s who are currently on ventilators in an ICU because of Covid-19. If you're young, you can get sick and die. At the least, you might be responsible for spreading this virus to another person who might die as a result. This is serious.
Here is Greg's message (from two emails, one sent to KaiNexus employees and one sent to a larger group), shared with his permission (with minor edits). If you have questions, post a comment and I'll get answers and responses from Greg.
I awoke this morning (3/15/20) and thought every rational and caring person that I know understood the importance of social distancing. I spent yesterday talking to dozens of people and getting dozens of small social events canceled. I thought my job was done. This morning I spoke to my close friend, a smart and compassionate person, and he was heading with his family to a bike shop and then the Container Store… I realize my job had just begun.
I am an ER doc of 20 years and married to a double-boarded doc with more experience. I realize we have a unique perspective, and therefore, have a duty and obligation to educate and influence as many people as possible. You will never have another day in your life where you can literally make such a small sacrifice and potentially save the lives of dozens and perhaps hundreds or even thousands of people. This is not an exaggeration.
If you care about your fellow humans, I would appeal to you to spend the next hour processing the following information (below email and links to articles) and then send the info to any person you know, especially anyone of influence or power.
I predict we will be on lockdown by Wednesday or Thursday as a country (hopefully earlier) and it will be 3 days too late for hundreds of thousands of people when they are dead in about 1 month. Mayor Adler's 250 person (Austin, TX) ban on 3/14/20 is progressive and an OK start, but it needs to be restricted further ASAP. This needs to happen everywhere. Thousands if not hundreds of thousands of lives will depend on these few days.
I have no memory of ever asking people to forward on information that I send, but I am asking you to forward this and also talk to as many people as you can to tell them to stay home.
Here are more important resources:
- Up to date number of cases – look at the exponential curve – this should give you chills – it will be 12 days from complete shutdown before we can influence the curve. Click on the link for the latest updated chart. – https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
- A smart person describing what we all need to do – https://www.ariadnelabs.org/resources/articles/news/social-distancing-this-is-not-a-snow-day/
- The science behind what is happening – this is scary but we all need to read it – https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
- Below is the updated graph from the US this morning (3/15/20) – this is profound and the most meaningful image we will look at for a very long time. It takes 12 days of total lockdown before you can change the nature of that curve. We are in for a world of hurt as a society if we don't flatten that curve. Italy is 12 days ahead of us. They are on day 6-7 of lockdown. They have another 7-8 days of exponential growth. Take a look at their curve it is still going straight up exponentially. They have been out of ICU beds for days.
Mark's note: Keep in mind that the chart should probably read “Confirmed Cases” since many people who have the virus certainly haven't had that confirmed by a test yet.
Please be a part of the solution and influence others to be the solution as well.
Stay physically distant,
His previous email:
I wanted to follow up on the last 24 hours. Last night the gravity of what our country and world are about to go through hit me like a truck. Flattening the curve is about saving the lives, not of a handful of people, but potentially hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, worldwide. If our current healthcare system gets hit with a bunch of people coming all at once, there will be hard decisions that doctors and ethicists will be making in the next 3-4 weeks. Decisions about who will live and who will die. There are only so many ventilators and ICU beds. The old and infirm will die because we could not give them the care they needed and many will get maximum care and still die.
I drove back from San Antonio today and told my parents that I would not see them again until this dies down. They are both over 70 and [my wife] Adrienne and I have a responsibility to go to our ER shifts where we will be inevitably exposed. When I drove down South Congress, I saw normal activity, normal shopping, and outdoor bar areas packed. It was mind-boggling. There are not just 2,500 US cases of Covid-19 currently. That is the confirmed number of cases in a country that has limited testing ability at the moment. There are likely hundreds of thousands.
Today, all those people not isolating potentially doubled the number of cases.
We made the decision on Wednesday night to become a remote company during this crisis in order to help limit the spread of the virus. Making the decision to become a remote company, but then going to the grocery store, restaurants, home depot, and coffee shops defeats the purpose of us being a remote company. It also makes us hypocrites if we say we are being socially responsible.
I do not believe many of us will know many people younger than 50 that die from this disease. We will all know people older than 70. Social isolation/distancing is not about us. It is about them. Please stay at home. Only go out if it's necessary. Think in terms of “Is it worth someone dying that I go do _____?” If you do go out, wear a mask. Go when there are few people out and vigorously wipe everything down that you bring into the house with sanitizer wipes. Use hand sanitizer liberally.
When we started talking about this two weeks ago, I thought this was going to be a very, very, very bad flu season. Yesterday, I was concerned and communicated about flattening the curve. Now seeing the beginning of the curve, I am processing this all and I am petrified. Please stay home. I understand that 98% of the population doesn't “get it” as illustrated by the masses of people on South Congress. Today I have managed to stop three couples going out to dinner tonight, a family of 7 going camping tomorrow, my own daughter's birthday party from happening tonight, and a classmate of Micah's birthday party tomorrow. How many social events can you stop before you go to bed?
Many of you have known me for a long time. I am not prone to hyperbole. “Overreacting” now is the best thing we can do to lessen the disaster that is coming. This is what the first days of a pandemic feel like… like there is nothing going on.
I'm happy to talk to anyone,
You can also read a version of this on the KaiNexus blog:
What do you think? Please scroll down (or click) to post a comment. Or please share the post with your thoughts on LinkedIn. Don't want to miss a post or podcast? Subscribe to get notified about posts via email daily or weekly.