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Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Video Clip -- Mike Micklewright as Dr. Deming

You might remember my podcast with Mike Micklewright, "What Would Deming Say?"

Here is a free video clip of his "An Evening with Dr. Deming" presentation. You can buy the full DVD by clicking here.





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Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Lean and Deming's Anti-Slogan Views

Earlier leanblog.org post and comment

Last week, I posted about Deming's 14 points and I got an interesting question from a blog reader, Brian:

I found # 10 confounding: "Eliminate slogans, exhortations and targets."

Slogans are sometimes used to communicate change. While they are just a tiny ingredient in a large recipe for communicating change, they can be effective.

We use targets in our Lean improvement workshops so the team can measure their success at the end of the week.

Is Deming really for eliminating these or am I not understanding his intent? Are some of our Lean practices in opposition to his principles?

Here is my take on it, based on my experience and study of Dr. Deming's teachings. First thought is that when I visited NUMMI in 2005, I saw a lot of large banners with slogans, including their annual Quality Slogan. I thought this was surprising, considering the influence Deming had on Toyota, but someone explained that slogans are OK as long as they aren't "empty slogans." I would never put up signs during a hospital Lean project that exhort people, "Quality is YOUR responsibility." No, it's management's responsibility. We have to improve systems, not exhort people.

I agree that slogans and sayings can be helpful. One team I'm working with now has really embraced the expression, "Don't let best get in the way of better." We don't have it on signs all over the place. Is it a slogan? I guess. Is it bad, I don't think so, since the expression encourages them to take a PDCA approach, try something and see how it works, rather than obsessing over a perfect solution.

Now for targets... my take is that targets and measures for improvement are a good thing. I consider them "goals" more than "targets" and I think there's more to that than the choice of words.

For example, in a project, we expect to improve testing Turnaround Time from XX hours to XX minutes, based on analysis of the process and knowing how much waste there is. Tracking the improvement goals isn't a bad thing. What would be bad is setting an absolute "you must hit this or be punished" target for a project team or staff. Setting quotas such as "you must draw blood from 10 patients per hour, or else" would be a very bad thing, something that Dr. Deming railed against.

What we're trying to avoid is the old "Management by Objectives" sins of managers just hitting targets and then waiting to see the results. We need managers involved in managing and improving the process, not just hitting targets that are often unrealistic. If you set quotas or targets and threaten punishment (or lack of reward) then people will distort the data or they will distort the system - something we really want to avoid.

I hope that helps. What are YOUR perspectives on the use of slogans and targets? I hope we can agree that exhortations are bad, right?

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Sunday, June 08, 2008

Deming Overview Article in the News

The Whig Standard - Ontario, CA

I'm always curious when I see an article like this in the news about the late Dr. W. Edwards Deming. The article, from Kingston Ontario, Canada, doesn't reference any local companies. What prompted the reporter to write about this? Not that I'm complaining... it speaks to the relevance of Deming's message, some 15 years after his passing.

Deming saw a different way for auto businesses to operate. He saw the "assembly-line" mentality of low-income workers being forced into repetitive jobs, while the rich few controlled things from above, as a mentality of the past.

"People are entitled to self-esteem," he once said. "Our system crushes it out."


That message still isn't getting through. People's spirits get "crushed" in all sorts of settings, be it an auto assembly line or a hospital. When I hear comments like, "I've been a nurse here for 6 years and this is the first time anyone has asked me what I think about anything," it's sad. As we help hospitals adopt a Lean philosophy and a Lean management system (not just implementing tools), we can start turning that around. It does wonders for the self esteem of employees AND it benefits patients and the hospital, finally getting more employee input.

Since they can't be repeated enough, the writer cites Deming's 14 points and I'll republish them here:

DEMING'S GOLDEN RULES

W. Edwards Deming's theory centered on 14 key principles for management for transforming business effectiveness in the auto industry. They are:

1. Create constancy of purpose.

2. Take the lead in adopting the new philosophy.

3. Cease dependence on inspection to achieve quality.

4. End the practice of awarding business on the basis of cheapest cost.

5. Improve constantly.

6. Institute training on the job.

7. Institute leadership.

8. Drive out fear.

9. Break down barriers between departments.

10. Eliminate slogans, exhortations and targets.

11. Eliminate management by numbers, and management by objective. Substitute leadership.

12. Remove barriers to pride in workmanship.

13. Institute education and self-improvement.

14. Put everybody to work to accomplish the transformation.

Does your company use even a few of these ideas?


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GM to try to Inspect Quality In After Letting Experience Walk Out the Door

GM preps for new hires after buyouts

This is a particularly sad story. We often debate the proper role of layoffs and headcount reductions in the Lean community. It's "conventional wisdom" perhaps in the Lean movement that we should not let efficiency improvements that result from Lean methods lead to layoffs. To do so would undercut the employee participation that is required for Lean (and an organization) to be successful in the long run.

Many consider it to be a different story if the business is shrinking because of a declining market or declining market share - case in point, General Motors. At a high level, GM's leadership has a responsibility to prevent decline -- through product design, marketing, and general management of the whole enterprise. Toyota claims to have not laid off employees in 50 years. This is partly due to continually being in a growth mode rather than constantly shrinking.

This most recent article about GM paints a different picture. GM is not just shrinking the workforce. They are throwing out older, more expensive workers to be replaced by newer, less expensive ones. This is not "Lean." This is not in keeping with the "respect for people" principle of the Toyota Production System.
Some 19,000 GM hourly employees are leaving as part of the labor deal GM negotiated with the United Auto Workers last year that allows the company to replace departing workers with lower-paid new hires. Most are slated to leave July 1.
That's 19,000 individuals with skills, knowledge, and experience. If GM views them merely as a back and a set of hands, then shame on GM. They might defend the decision by saying, "Someone paid $14 can just as easily turn a wrench as somebody making twice as much." What about the accumulated experience and problem solving abilities that should be there in the older employees? I guess that never was valued much??

Don't they realize the impact this mass exodus could have on quality? Oh wait, they do:

The biggest challenge for GM may be accomplishing the massive undertaking without compromising the quality of its cars and trucks. Having begun to win new respectability on the quality front, the automaker can't afford costly and reputation-marring mistakes on the factory floor, which is a risk when there is significant turnover.

"We are very intensely focused on making sure our quality isn't compromised," said Joe Mazzeo, GM's executive director of manufacturing quality. "Our customers don't know this is going on, and they don't care."

As with many business decisions, such as outsourcing or offshoring, the "savings" or "benefit" from such a move is easy to calculate. It's easy to calculate the savings from paying workers $14/hour instead of $28/hour, even considering the buyouts and "go away" payments to departing workers. But the COSTS are much less easily quantified. What is the cost of poor quality? What is the cost of poor morale, of either having to work alongside a new junior employee who makes an embarrassing low wage or the low morale of a new employee who resents the older employees who make twice as much for the same job?

How does GM plan to maintain quality? Sure, the new employees will be trained, they won't just be thrown into jobs.

Also, in an unusual step, GM will carry out quality checks of every vehicle headed off the factory floor during the initial transition. Typically, vehicles are picked at random for the checks.

The people at GM must have listened to Dr. Deming a little bit. They MUST know that you can't "inspect quality in" to a product. The need to increase inspection adds cost and must be an acknowledgment that they KNOW quality will suffer. They won't be able to catch all of the defects. The customer will notice. GM says their customers don't know this is going on. Um, maybe try to avoid being quoted in a newspaper article about how this is happening. Readers of this blog know it is happening. Tell your friends.

I doubt we'll see loads of books and Harvard Business School publications about the "General Motors Method" of throwing out expensive employees and replacing them with cheaper ones. Or maybe it's already called the "Circuit City Method." Ford has been doing the same thing, as have other auto suppliers. It's the standard playbook anymore, unless you're Toyota or a truly Lean company.

Step 1: Fire expensive employees. Step 2: Hire cheaper ones. Step 3: Profit. Oh wait, both companies are still struggling.

Can the GM leaders be thrown out and replaced with newer, cheaper executives?

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Saturday, June 07, 2008

An MD/CEO In Indiana Believes in Lean

Doctor takes pulse of Lutheran Health | The Journal Gazette:

Here's an article about Dr. Mike Schatzlein, Chief executive officer for Lutheran Health Network and Dupont Hospital, in Indiana.
"Schatzlein believes “lean engineering” – like that employed by manufacturers to standardize processes – can help. Dupont Hospital has tripled the number of surgeries started on time in the past few months by standardizing certain pre-operation processes. That’s improved efficiency and reduced the likelihood of error, he said.

Schatzlein calls process improvement the “holy grail” – the only way you can get something out of nothing. But he doesn’t think any amount of process improvement will be enough to solve the overarching problem of containing cost while providing care to the nation’s uninsured.

“We can’t afford all the health care we want as a society,” Schatzlein said."
He's right, Lean is not a cure-all for any health system (be it in the U.S., Canada, or the U.K., each system having its own ills). But Lean is indeed a method that can improve both quality AND efficiency. More and more hospitals are learning this and it's continually reinforced through my experiences in hospitals.

Dr. Schatzlein sounds like the kind of humble leader who would fit with the Lean management philosophy:

Open-ended brainstorming is one of Schatzlein’s strengths, said Kirk Ray, CEO of St. Joseph Hospital, who considers Schatzlein a mentor. He’s not the typical guy just looking to fix things right away, Ray said.

“I think Mike is a very good listener.” The advice he does give is usually followed up with a “What do I know?” The undercutting humor “tends to put you at ease,” Ray said.
I am skeptical, though, about the use of rewards and incentives, as that goes against the notion that quality and performance are the result of a system, as Dr. Deming taught.
Goals for improvement, such as patient safety, will be gauged against widely accepted measures, like those used by Medicare & Medicaid Services to compare hospitals. After everyone understands the organizational goals, employees will get feedback on how they are doing and will be rewarded accordingly, whether with an award, money or a promotion.
The problem with incentives like this is that you're creating an extrinsic motivation for something that should be an intrinsic motivation -- providing safe care. Normal people (not the crazies who purposefully harm patients) don't want to hurt patients or co-workers.

Creating incentives creates too many opportunities for gaming the system or for outright luck to create "winners." Systems might reward those who might not have been performing differently than peers in other departments, but they ended up with better results through what Dr. Deming called a "lottery" of life. Incentive systems encourage people to game the system and they create fear of what happens if you don't hit your target (loss of a reward) -- robbing people of their intrinsic motivations.

I'm glad Schatzlein and his hospital are using Lean process improvement methods. The idealist in me would also want them to look at quality improvement methods that don't require rewards and incentives for doing the right thing.

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Monday, May 19, 2008

LeanBlog Podcast #43 - Mike Micklewright, "What Would Deming Say?"

Episode #43 of LeanBlog Podcast is a very special one. My guest is Mike Mickleright, writer, consultant, and performer -- most interesting to me is his impersonation of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. As I wrote about before, I've seen his DVD and Mike agreed to create this podcast with me. We start off talking with Mike about his background with Dr. Deming and how he created the impersonation. Then, we shift into me interviewing Mike as Dr. Deming, asking him some questions on modern quality approaches including Lean and Six Sigma.

For earlier episodes, visit the main Podcast page, which includes information on how to subscribe via RSS or via Apple iTunes.

You can use the player (use the VCR-type controls) below to listen to a "streaming" version of the podcast (or click here for the streaming audio and RSS subscription). The streaming link is faster for one-time listening (hardly any delay to start listening). Or you can use the download link to put it on your iPod or other MP3 player.




MP3 File --> Right-Click to "Save As"

Enhanced AAC File (with Chapters)

"Dr. Deming" interview portion only (MP3 File)

LeanBlog Podcast #43 Key Points & Links

If you have feedback on the podcast, or any questions for me or my guests, you can email me at leanpodcast@gmail.com or you can call and leave a voicemail by calling the "Lean Line" at (817) 776-LEAN (817-776-5326) or contact me via Skype id "mgraban". Please give your location and your first name. Any comments (email or voicemail) might be used in follow ups to the podcast.



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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Mike Micklewright, Deming Impersonator

You might recall that I posted back in January about a “Deming impersonator” who was presenting/performing. Thank to that post, I was contacted by Mike Micklewright, the creator and performer of the impersonator (in addition to being President of his firm, Quality Quest). He kindly sent me a DVD of “What Would Deming Say?” and I have to say I really enjoyed it.

Mike is by no means a dead ringer for Dr. Deming, but with the glasses, the suit, and the close-cropped hair, he approximates what a “young Dr. Deming” might have looked like. Mike has obviously studied the speaking patterns and mannerisms of Dr. Deming and a comparison with Dr. Deming videos on YouTube confirms he does a pretty good job. I had my dad (who had gone through Dr. Deming’s 4-day seminar) watch it and he thought it was a pretty good effort, as well.

In his hour-long presentation, Mike not only repeats some of Dr. Deming’s key messages, he also brings along a trusty overhead projector, which he utilizes the way Dr. Deming did. It makes you wonder if, were he still alive today, if Dr. Deming would have clung to his transparencies, even in an era of PowerPoint.

In addition to covering some of the history of quality improvement and Dr. Deming’s work, Mike also gives some interpretations of what Dr. Deming might have said about more “modern” business issues. These topics include the use of Six Sigma and Toyota Production System principles, as well as outsourcing. He emphasizes that Lean is about “respect for and involvement of the people.” He takes on the ills of the business world that still surround us, including short-term thinking, annual employee reviews, and focusing on outputs and specifications instead of process.

Mike/Deming said:

“One of the main root causes of Toyota’s success is self reliance. By trying to become more like Toyota, we are becoming less like Toyota. This is the paradox. Nobody taught Toyota tools – 5S, kaizen, value stream mapping. These were outputs of their own system. Today, American companies buy Lean tools, Six Sigma, ISO-9001, sourcing from China and India, instead of developing internally. We are NOT self reliant.”

You can contact Mike through his website, especially if you're looking to hire him to speak at an event, meeting, or workshop. You can also find links to articles, including this clever one about the "Society of the Anti-Deming" (SAD) and their alternative universe 14 points.

Mike has agreed to do a podcast with me, at least part of it in his Deming impersonator mode. If you have any questions for "What Would Deming Say?", post a comment or email me here and we'll try to incorporate them. Stay tuned.

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Saturday, April 05, 2008

Conferences, Future and Recent

The W. Edwards Deming Institute

This has to be the best title for a seminar ever:

How to Create Unethical, Ineffective Organizations That Go Out of Business
(Many Organizations Do It, But Do You Know How You Do It?)

The Deming Institute workshop is in Colorado Springs in May, see the link above.

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The Association for Manufacturing Excellence (AME) is having their annual conference in Toronto October 20 through 24. I'm hoping to attend and I assume a bunch

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The folks who organize the Lean Accounting Summit and the upcoming TWI Summit are also now doing a "Lean & Green Summit" to be held in July. Wouldn't the ultimate "green" summit be a web-only event that didn't require people to burn fossil fuels to get there?

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Did anyone attend the Shingo Prize awards and conference this past week in Dallas? I was unable to attend, unfortunately, even though it was in my backyard since I was out of town for work meetings all week. I would have tried to do a Lean Blog gathering had I been here. Who has a report on how things went?


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Monday, March 24, 2008

Lowest "Respect for People" Score Ever?

Employee's suit: Company used waterboarding to motivate workers - Salt Lake Tribune

This isn't a "Lean" article, but holy moley, you have to read the linked story and think about how a company culture gets that far off the rails.

First off, there's really no formal "scorecard" for a company's performance on the "respect for people" principle of the Toyota Production System... but if there were, a Utah company called "Prosper" might have earned an all-time low score... not that they're a company that's trying to do anything Lean. I guess it goes to show that "respect for people" has to be spelled out as a Toyota Way principle because there are too many workplace examples of disrespect...

As you can see in the headline of the linked article, yes, a former salesperson has accused a manager of "waterboarding" him in a "motivational" exercise:
The suit claims that Hudgens' team leader, Joshua Christopherson, asked for volunteers in May for "a new motivational exercise," which he did not describe. Hudgens, who was 26 at the time, volunteered in order to "prove his loyalty and determination," the suit claims.

Christopherson led the sales team to the top of a hill near the office and told Hudgens to lie down with his head downhill, the suit claims. Christopherson then told the rest of the team to hold Hudgens by the arms and legs.

Christopherson poured water from a gallon jug over Hudgen's mouth and nostrils - like the interrogation strategy known as "waterboarding" - and told the team members to hold Hudgens down as he struggled, the suit alleges.
The company president, Dave Ellis, does NOT deny that the exercise occurred... it was just a misunderstanding, since it was something that Socrates supposedly did to demonstration that you should be willing to fight for something as hard as you had to fight to breathe.

The allegation is being questioned of course, and this could be an example of a former employee exaggerating the situation.

The other allegations include:
However, the suit claims Christopherson "intentionally engaged in physically and emotionally abusive conduct" to punish workers who did not meet company performance goals.

"Prosper's management passed by and through Christopherson's team area and was able to see mustaches on its employees, missing chairs and Christopherson's paddle," the suit alleges.

Ellis said no managers have said they saw the activities described in Hudgens' suit, and the employees reported they are "more along the lines of fun."

"It's voluntary, it's humorous, it's team and camaraderie-building," Ellis said.
Ah ha -- "did not meet company performance goals." This sounds like an extreme case of the typical "carrot and stick" system of management by objectives... reward those who do well (with boat trips) and humiliate or punish those who don't meet the objectives. If managers were pounding people's desks with a paddle and drawing mustaches on them, I doubt there were control charts to see if the difference between "boat trip" and "chair taken away" was statistically significant or not!

I'm sure the company started off with good intentions... but their traditional view of rewards and performance-based recognition went haywire. Why is it that companies are much more willing to fire and punish "poor performers" than they are to look at the systemic causes.... oh, because the executives might have to look in the mirror?

Or, Prosper might suggest that you hire.... well, hire Prosper, Inc. If you look at their website, it's a bit creepy. They claim to be a company that has training and other services to coach other companies and entrepreneurs in being successful. Their product is so good, apparently, that they have to waterboard their salespeople into pushing whatever crap it is that they have?

A quote on their home page:
"We are the solution! From the beginning... like the rings of waves on the surface of the pool of success."
Those rings of waves are emanating out from someone who is being drowned in a motivational exercise, apparently!

A more recent news story claims that the publicity "hasn't hurt business." Go figure...

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Friday, March 21, 2008

Dr. Deming Video on YouTube

I always find it enlightening to see old videos of Dr. Deming. His commentary on the current state of business and management are just as relevant today, probably some 20 years after this video was made.



I'm sure everyone has just gone through their annual cycle of rewards, raises, recognition... things that Dr. Deming always railed against. His points about how annual review cycles stamp out intrinsic motivation and cooperation or teamwork are still just as relevant, right? Does anyone have tales or horror stories about those annual cycles?


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Friday, March 14, 2008

Lean *is* About Quality, Folks

Time for a low-carb Lean Six Sigma?:

Stuff like this irritates me to no end:
"Lean Manufacturing has us analyzing process flow and delay times at each activity within a process. And while Lean Manufacturing principles help speed things up, they don't really focus on quality control. Think of it as 'improving process speed.'"
It's a huge pet peeve of mine when people create the dichotomy that "Lean is about speed and Six Sigma is about quality." Hogwash.

Lean and the Toyota Production System are primarily quality-focused systems. Lean and TPS are focused on the waste of defects and rework and the methodology gives approaches for preventing errors and improving quality (poka yoke).

The "Toyota House" diagram's two pillars are Just-In-Time (flow and speed) and Jidoka (quality at the source). The two ideas are connected -- improving flow (in itself) ends up improving quality and improving quality improves flow.

If you hear someone say "Lean isn't about quality," it's tempting to tune them out as they don't know what they're talking about. Have some people implemented something they called "lean" in an environment that didn't care about quailty? Sure -- but that's not an indictment of the Toyota Production System.

The author I linked to DOES make some good points on a related topic about how you can't just rely on measurements. Deming made this point, that sometimes the important things CANNOT be measured (as opposed to the common misquoting of Deming supposedly saying "You can't manage what you can't measure." It's a good point that I don't often see made... but I almost quit reading when I read the false statement that unfairly characterized Lean.

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Thursday, March 06, 2008

A Silly Example of Mandates and Threats Not Working

Cemetery full, mayor tells locals not to die - Yahoo! News

Maybe this mayor has consumed too much Bordeaux wine. But this story is a wonderfully comical illustration of how ineffective management mandates, targets, quotas, and the fear of punishment can actually be.
The mayor of a village in southwest France has threatened residents with severe punishment if they die, because there is no room left in the overcrowded cemetery to bury them.

In an ordinance posted in the council offices, Mayor Gerard Lalanne told the 260 residents of the village of Sarpourenx that "all persons not having a plot in the cemetery and wishing to be buried in Sarpourenx are forbidden from dying in the parish."

It added: "Offenders will be severely punished."
I doubt they attempted a "5 Whys" exercise that went like this (imagine an Inspector Clouseau accent -- the Peter Sellers one, not the lame Steve Martin one):
  1. Why is zee cemetery full?
  2. Because people are dying!!
Eh, sounds like zee root cause to me. Hmm.... let's drink more wine!!

Talk about NOT getting to a solvable root cause of the problem!!

And for any of you who are laughing at this or the mayor, he proactively responded:
"It may be a laughing matter for some, but not for me," he said.
Are any of our managers trying to manage the same way? Through mandates and threats? In the name of improving quality? Preventing errors or safety incidents?" Mandates, fear, and threats just lead to people hiding problems or being really creative in making things look good (rather than making real improvements). Have any examples to share?

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Wednesday, March 05, 2008

PDCA at the TSA?

ABC News: Airport Security To Be Easier for Families?

I am probably giving the Transportation Security Agency waaaaaay too much credit here, but this story made me think of the "PDCA" cycle of "Plan Do Check Act" (known as the Shewhart cycle or the Deming cycle).
The Transportation Security Administration is experimenting with checkpoint lanes designed for families to ease the pressure on parents struggling through an airport with young children.

In one of the first efforts to ease airport security for infrequent travelers, "family" lanes are being tested at the Denver and Salt Lake City airports alongside "expert" lanes for travelers who know every nuance of security screening and lanes for "casual" travelers.
The emphasis on "experimenting" is mine. That's what PDCA is all about -- a small-scale experiment to see if an idea works or not. We often do that in the Lean approach, where someone has a theory (hopefully somewhat thought out) that making a change will improve a system. Supervisors might probe and ask why that idea is a good one or the best alternative. More often than not, we want people to make at least a small-scale trial with an idea, such as this TSA policy.

The article continues:
Segregated lanes could open around the country if the tests show the concept speeds up security lines.
That's the key -- spread the concept ("Act") if tests show ("Check") that the implemented concept ("Do") works well. If not, kill the program (another form of "Act") and try something new.

I've self-segregated myself in airport lines for a long time. Given a choice, I'd alway prefer to get behind an "expert traveler" instead of a family juggling a few kids and all of their stuff.

The concept is criticized in the article by someone with a somewhat undisclosed conflict of interest. Oh well, bad reporting. Of course the guy who wants to SELL expedited security passes to frequent travelers doesn't want the TSA to improve flow -- that lessens demand for his product.

So this policy seems OK to me -- if it's proven to work. But, then again, I don't have kids. How do those of you with kids feel about the policy?

Either way, maybe you can use this as an example of PDCA when you're talking about it in your workplace. My headline would have been better if I had called it "PDSA at the TSA" (Plan Do Study Act, an alternative way of saying the same concept).

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Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Deming on Education

If there was any value to the Industry Week commentary that tried to link Deming and Obama, it was that it prompted me to re-read some of Deming's work, namely the "management of people" chapter from The New Economics.

There's so much good stuff in there, including the 14 rules / guidelines for a manager of people to follow. You can read that online at google books (for free). There's so much that's re-stated, from Deming, in many of the more recent books about Toyota. You definitely see the Deming influence coming through. So it's sometimes interesting to go back and re-read earlier books.

In the chapter, Deming rails against business schools, pointing out what they SHOULD teach, which is, of course, the opposite of what's taught. Deming says business schools should teach students about the "evils" of short-term thinking and the "evils" of the merit system and ranking people. There's also a somewhat bleak chart on page 122 that makes the case that schools and management systems do nothing but demoralize people throughout their lives until they die.

Deming then, on page 145, rails against grading students and grading teachers or schools. Deming's argument is that grades (especially forced ranking and grading curves) rob students of their intrinsic motivation to learn (and probably robs teachers of their joy in teaching).

Deming recommends:
  • Abolish grades (A, B, C, D) in school...
  • Abolish merit ratings for teachers
  • Abolish comparison of schools on the basis of scores
  • Abolish gold stars for athletics or for best costume
He writes, "Our schools must preserve and nurture the yearning for learning that everyone is born with."

In recent years, the trend has been toward "merit pay" for teachers and schools. Hogwash. Deming, the hypothetical presidential candidate, would undoubtedly be against the "No Child Left Behind Act" (but maybe for different reasons than Democrats).

From the wikipedia page:
NCLB is the latest federal legislation (another was Goals 2000) which enacts the theories of standards-based education reform, formerly known as outcome-based education, which is based on the belief that high expectations and setting of goals will result in success for all students
High expectations and goals without a method? That's a recipe for failure and I assume Dr. Deming would have hated that. The focus is on measurement... but at the expense of learning? Given goals, people in any setting are clever about "gaming the numbers" (as the Wikipedia article points out) and educators are no different.

I'm not a NCLB expert... reading more, I'm guessing Dr. Deming wouldn't disagree with the whole act. Making sure that teachers are well qualified is a good thing. All things considered, I guess that Dr. Deming would suggest "leadership" as a replacement for NCLB. What do you think?

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John Boyd, Lean Fighter Pilot Part I

By: Andy Wagner

The OODA Loop & You

I love examples of lean thinking that come from unexpected angles. Mike Gardner at the TPM Log recently brought up one of my favorite figures from the world of folks who embody lean without knowing it, the late US Air Force Colonel John R. Boyd. Boyd is most known for being the father of the F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft, but the most likely connection to the lean world would be, as Mike points out, the similarity of his “OODA loop”, Observe-Orient-Decide-Act, to the Deming Cycle, Plan-Do-Check-Act:

Colonel Boyd believed the OODA Loop process could be successfully applied beyond military applications and used to benefit any business organization. Gadfly management gurus such as Tom Peters have thrown the OODA acronym onto Power Point slides and stated that "whoever has the fastest OODA Loops wins!" and "Ready. Fire. Aim!"
Mike raises some great questions regarding how the two similar cycles relate to on another:

I have some problems with that. To begin with, business is not the military and business competition is not the same as military competition. Concepts such as the Deming Cycle of Plan-Do-Check-Act encourage a bias for action, but emphasize taking the correct action rather than the fastest.

In a sense, PDCA is actually two consecutive OODA loops, compressed together. Plan encompasses the first “observe-orient” phases. Do represents an experimental “decide-act.” Check is the second “observe-orient”, taking into account the results of the experiment. Act reflects a second decision and consequent action. While the Deming Cycle lends itself to a process engineer experimenting and developing a change, it doesn’t fit the kind of decisions and reactions that line workers have to make on-the-fly while the line is moving.

Far from advocating, “Ready, fire, aim”, Boyd advocated simplifying decision making processes by removing waste from them. One concept, embraced by the US Marines in particular, is the idea of Commander’s Intent, essentially decentralization of decision-making. Rather than giving explicit, detailed orders, commander’s train their men in a standardized way, with a common philosophy, and give them orders in the form of what they intend to accomplish and why. It’s left to each subordinate to determine the specifics for their unique situation.

Think about an andon cord. A line worker observes his surroundings and his immediate problem, including the takt time remaining. He orients himself based on his training, his understanding of standard work and why the job is done in a certain way. He decides how to act—fix the problem himself or get help, and then he acts. He can pull the cord if he has to, but he can also fix the problem himself.

At the next opportunity, he begins another loop, this time, informed by the experience of the first decision during his “orient” phase. Perhaps he barely had time to fix the problem and he knows he’s running behind the takt time. If he sees the same thing again, he’ll know it’s time for a root-cause fix and pull the cord. Lean training methods and respect for people mean that each person on the line has the ability and authority to make their own decisions without being forced to involve a supervisor. This shortens the decision cycle and allows the whole facility to solve problems faster.

In Part Two of John Boyd, Lean Fighter Pilot, I’ll write about Matt May’s recent post at Elegant Solutions on the Art of Tension and how John Boyd accomplished the same type of systems engineering in the design of the F-16 fighter, one of the world’s most successful and capable combat aircraft. Click here for Part II.

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Saturday, March 01, 2008

Deming Endorses Obama (?)

Breaking: Deming Endorses Obama - IndustryWeek Forums

A few people have emailed me about this and it's easier for me to comment here than it is to register for the IW forums. An interesting idea is posed by Brad Kenney: would Deming "endorse" Obama as the result of this quote?
“Does experience help? NO! Not if we are doing the wrong things.”

- W. Edwards Deming (consultant, statistician and educator, 1900-1993)
That's hardly an endorsement and it raises the question of whether Obama really has "new" ideas or old liberal ones. The Deming quote is certainly a paraphrase of what Obama is trying to say about Hillary Clinton, that she has "experience" and it was the wrong things.

Yes, things are broken in Washington DC, as the writer points out. My own position is that things are equally broken on BOTH sides of the political aisle. Kenney is trying to be clever in comparing government problems to business issues, but I think he misses the mark -- badly.
The employees (us) aren't engaged, and the management (the three branches of government) range from hopelessly inept to criminally incompetent. Employee morale and "customer satisfaction" (approval ratings) are at an all time low (in the 20% range for both Bush and Congress). Our country is hopelessly in the red, and don't get me started on defect rates where legislation is concerned (Congress' first pass yield has got to be in the single digits).
Whoa whoa.... the American citizens, the public.... we're NOT "employees." We do not work for the government. The government is supposed to work for us. "Customer satisfaction" is maybe a better analogy than "employee morale."

Kenny equates political change to "pulling the andon cord." Maybe that's not a bad analogy. But, I don't think Dr. Deming would want change for the sake of change or merely "fresh ideas." I'll have to dig up some of his quotes from "The New Economics" for his thoughts on government, but I would suspect Deming would favor the PDCA process -- try a change, measure the results, see how it works. Too many government programs never go through the Check and Act phases... we just "Do" and programs are stuck in place forever.

Deming wrote, on page 123 of The New Economics:
Transformation is required in government, industry, education. Management is in a stable state. Transformation is required to move out of the present state, not mere patchwork on the present style of management. We must of course solve problems and stamp out fires as they occur, but these activities do not change the process.

... there will be cooperation on problems of common interest between people, divisions, companies, competitors, governments, countries.... the function of government should be to work with business, not harass business."
I quoted selectively and hopefully not out of context. You can read the whole page online at the Google Books page for the book (scroll to page 123).

If I had to guess Deming's views on the current election... he would be opposed to party divisions and the use of divisiveness to win votes. I'm guessing he would want a candidate with systemic solutions to broken government policies and systems, not just fire-fighting. I'm also guessing he would fall more along the Republican or Libertarian lines of not over-regulating or punishing business.

Too bad Dr. Deming isn't alive to be a third-party candidate, because I would have voted for him in a second. Heck, Dr. Deming had plenty of foreign policy experience with all of the countries he visited during his teaching and consulting!! Deming for President!

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Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Fun With Statistics, SPC Edition

To borrow a theme from Kevin Meyer, here's some "fun with statistics," or at least this kind of thing is fun to me, being a big proponent of Statistical Process Control (SPC) and the methods taught by Deming and Wheeler (an incredible reference is Wheeler's book Understanding Variation).

I forget the exact context, but a I heard a news story that talked about some data (I forget if it was employment related, housing starts, etc) and the key point made was "it was the 24th consecutive month where the number was lower than the previous year."

OK, kind of convoluted, but the clear implication was that there was an indicator of a downward trend, or that was the conclusion we were supposed to draw.

A different comparison, 24 consecutive declining months, compared month to month instead of to a year prior, certainly would be an indicator of a system that is not in statistical control, as pictured below. The line in the middle is the "mean" and the red lines are calculated "control limits" -- clearly not a process that is "in control." This is a trend we can draw a clear conclusion from. We can probably predict the next month will be lower (in fact, you can draw a control chart with a "slope" that takes into account a consistent increase or decrease).


But, the case mentioned on the radio might very well be a stable system. Again, in this case, I made up data, but trust me, each point 13-24 is lower (even if just slightly) than the data point 12 before.

In this case, we do have a process that is in statistical control, as shown below. It is quite possible that the "24 consecutive months where the number was lower than the previous year" is what you might call "statistical trivia" -- interesting, maybe, but meaningless. What this SPC chart tells us is that the next month is most likely to be in that range from 23 to 78, unless something changes (a "special cause").


There are far too many cases when the media (or business leaders) use (or abuse) year-on-year comparisons. Wheeler makes a compelling case in his book about why trend charts and SPC are much better than comparing two data points. We are less likely to make bad decisions based on trends that aren't there.

Has anyone else out there used SPC for evaluating business metrics? The great thing about using SPC is that you can avoid overreacting to every up and down in your hourly, daily, or weekly numbers. That overreaction creates a lot of "muda" (waste) and really wears everybody down.


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A Deming Impersonator?

Saginaw Valley Quality Source - Beta » What Would Dr. Deming Say?:

Has anyone ever heard of or seen Mike Micklewright, a "Deming impersonator?" Interesting idea, I wonder how well he pulls it off?

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Finding Joy in Your work

Postbulletin.com: Harvey Mackay: Work for the love of it all - Mon, Oct 15, 2007

For all of the complaining we do about the airlines and for all of the lousy attitudes we often run across, here's a positive story I read and liked and wanted to share.

It's a story about a United Airlines pilot who goes way above and beyond his job description. He finds joy in his work, pride in his work, as Deming might have talked about.
"...United Airlines pilot, Capt. Denny Flanagan. He could teach us all a lesson about customer service. Among his special touches ... He takes care of his passengers on flights that are delayed or diverted to other cities because of storms. He has been known to order a couple hundred hamburgers from McDonald's or to find a store where he can get bananas or apples to pass out."
The amazing thing is that the airline encourages him, rather than squashing his spirit and telling him to play by the rules. Some enlightened management from an airline!!
"United, which ranked next to worst in consumer complaints, recognizes what Flanagan's efforts mean for the company. According to the Journal, the airline supplies the airplane trading cards he hands out as passengers board, plus books, wine and discount coupons he has flight attendants give away. United also reimburses him for the food he buys during prolonged delays."
If you see the comment Mike left on the recent post about ER's, I guess he would hold this pilot up as an example of someone taking charge and trying to make things better. That's great. But, I also agree with the comment that implies cases like this pilot are pretty rare... sounds like a special person, hence being the focus of an inspirational column, right?

What obligation does leadership have to help create an environment where more people can take action without being squashed or beaten down?

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Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Lowest Bidder? No Wonder There Are Problems

Marketplace: Road construction paved with problems

Dr. Deming always preached to not choose suppliers based on price alone. Many companies and industries have never learned that lesson, so why should we expect governments to do any better?

This Marketplace story highlights how manyroad construction or improvement projects are beset with delays. The systemic culprit? Policies that mandate choosing the lowest bidder. Marketplace explains:
"Thousands of roads and bridges across the country are in this predicament. In Massachusetts alone, 43 percent of the road and highway projects under construction aren't finished on time."
The low bidders often don't have the resources to get the job done, or they won't go above and beyond to finish a job that might not be very profitable.

Another systemic dysfunction that's highlighted in the story is the practice of beginning work before the design is finalized and has been signed off on by the contractor. This, not surprisingly, leads to rework and additional delays. The governmental body is just chucking the design "over the wall" to the contractor.

Is there any hope that we can get government to focus on being effective instead of just focusing on trying to be cheap?

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