Unknowable Numbers and the Absurd

Infor Launches ERP XA MES Suite for Lean Manufacturing

This article talks about software for lean manufacturing environments, an idea that could be debated on its own. But the thing that jumped out at me here was the analyst comment:

Ralph Rio, ARC Advisory Group, commented, “Software for enhancing a Lean Manufacturing program has become an important market segment. The recent ARC Market Outlook Study on Continuous Improvement Systems forecasts the market growth for systems and services at 12.7 percent annually.”

Does saying “12.7%” give a level of precision that makes the forecast that much more believable. Who cares if any market is growing at 12.7% or 13.2593234%. It’s ridiculous.

Deming considered statements like this, I believe, to be one of the “Seven Deadly Sins of Management”:

“Use of visible figures only for management, with little or no consideration of figures that are unknown or unknowable.”

Good article on that here.

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Mark Graban's passion is creating a better, safer, more cost effective healthcare system for patients and better workplaces for all. Mark is a consultant, author, and speaker in the "Lean healthcare" methodology. He is author of the Shingo Award-winning books Lean Hospitals and Healthcare Kaizen, as well as The Executive Guide to Healthcare Kaizen. His most recent project is an book titled Practicing Lean that benefits the Louise H. Batz Patient Safety Foundation, where Mark is a board member. Mark is also the VP of Improvement & Innovation Services for the technology company KaiNexus.

1 Comment

  1. Karen Wilhelm says

    On statistics – the Lancet came out today with a figure of 650,000 civilian deaths in Iraq since the invasion, with complete details of the methodology used. I think our president is saying something like 30,000 with no data or references to back that up. It’s appalling.

    On software, when I get a piece about lean from a software company, I look at it very skeptically. Quite often I can see that the company has a very imperfect understanding of lean principles and reject it. There are a few exceptions, but not many.

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